Przegląd Elektrotechniczny

Oldest magazine of Polish electrician. It appears since 1919.

strona w języku polskim english page

No/VOL: 09/2022 Page no. 26

Authors: Vadim Manusov , Dmitry Orlov , Vitaly Karmanov , Alexander Khusnutdinov , Sergey Kokin , Murodbek Safaraliev :

Title: Analysis of electricity consumption forecasting methods for the coal industry

Abstract: The paper considers a forecast model of electricity consumption of a coal industry enterprise based on three forecast methods, namely the wavelet transform, the vector method, and the recurrent neutral network. A comparative analysis of these methods is performed. For preprocessing the data for forecasting by vector and recurrent methods, the Singular Spectrum Analysis method was chosen. The structure of the model allows taking into account individual features of the operating cycle of the production process and smoothing the noise components and outliers. The results of a short-term hourly forecast for one day ahead are presented with the comparison of the obtained values. The results of short-term electricity consumption forecast were verified based on the actual data of the coal industry enterprise in order to assess the adequacy of the model to the actual values. The proposed models can be applied in automated software systems for predictive control of a production process of a coal mining enterprise.

Key words: wavelet transform, singular spectrum analysis, power forecasting, power management.